NL East division preview: Lineups, rotations and one question to watch for each team ahead of 2025 season
NL East division preview: Lineups, rotations and one question to watch for each team ahead of 2025 season
Heading into 2025, the case can be made the NL East is the best and deepest division in the game. There are three teams that, if they won the division, I don’t think it would surprise anyone. The same goes for winning the World Series. Alas and alack, only one of those three teams can win the division. The two others will have to battle it out for wild-card berths.
With Opening Day just a week away, here now is our NL East season preview, with everything you need to know about the five teams.
Projected starting lineup
- SS Trea Turner, RHB
- 1B Bryce Harper, LHB
- 3B Alec Bohm, RHB
- DH Kyle Schwarber, LHB
- RF Nick Castellanos, RHB
- LF Max Kepler, LHB
- C JT Realmuto, RHB
- 2B Bryson Stott, LHB and Edmundo Sosa, RHB
- CF Brandon Marsh, LHB and Johan Rojas, RHB
Projected rotation
- RHP Zack Wheeler
- LHP Cristopher Sánchez
- RHP Aaron Nola
- LHP Ranger Suárez
- LHP Jesús Luzardo
Notable relievers
Biggest question: Is this the year they get over the hump?
An intentionally broad question, that is, but that really is the only question that matters for the Phillies. It’s World Series or bust for this team in 2025. They lost the World Series in 2022, lost the NLCS in 2023, and lost the NLDS in 2024. That’s a trend they want to reverse. Also, several core players are coming up on free agency (Realmuto, Schwarber, Suárez), plus Wheeler turns 35 in May, Harper turns 33 in October, and Nola turns 32 in June. This is a team with a lot of players moving from peak to post-peak.
That isn’t to say the Phillies are in trouble and nearing a down period. They’re very good and figure to remain competitive for several more years. It’s just that contending gets a little harder with each passing year as core players age. When you’re a World Series contender, which the Phillies clearly are, your best chance to win is the current season. It only gets more difficult over time. The Phillies know that. This group got close in 2022 and they don’t want to top together with that year’s World Series loss.
On the field, the biggests questions are the outfield defense (Castellanos is a poor defender and Kepler has never played left field at the MLB level) and perhaps bullpen roles, particularly with Matt Strahm being slowed by a shoulder issue this spring. The outfield defense is a concern, for sure, though manager Rob Thomson will figure out the relievers. He always does. The lineup is very strong and has a nice blend of speed (Turner), contact (Bohm, Stott), and power (Harper, Schwarber), and the rotation might be the best in baseball. That 1-5 can match up with anyone.
Will top pitching prospect Andrew Painter arrive this year? The Phillies are at least preparing him and themselves for the possibility by slowly ramping up his workload, and making sure he has innings available late in the season. Painter missed 2023 and almost all of 2024 with Tommy John surgery, so it’s not a guarantee he contributes, but the Phillies want to be ready in case he can. POBO Dave Dombrowski has never been shy about promoting prospects. Painter could be a second half X-factor, even if only as a reliever.
Arguably the best rotation in the game plus a deep and diverse lineup plus a manager who’s shown he can expertly navigate matchups with his bullpen equals a World Series contender. The Phillies been a title contender the last three years. This year is no different. Now they just have to get over the hump and actually win the World Series. They’re running out of years to say “there’s always next year,” you know?
Projected starting lineup
- SS Francisco Lindor, SHB
- RF Juan Soto, LHB
- 1B Pete Alonso, RHB
- LF Brandon Nimmo, LHB
- 3B Mark Vientos, RHB
- DH Jesse Winker, LHB and Starling Marte, RHB
- CF Jose Siri, RHB
- 2B Brett Baty, LHB
- C Luis Torrens, RHB
Projected rotation
- RHB Clay Holmes
- RHP Kodai Senga
- LHP David Peterson
- RHP Tylor Megill
- RHP Griffin Canning
- RHP Paul Blackburn
Notable relievers
Biggest question: Will Soto put them over the top?
At 65-38, the Mets had the best record in baseball after June 2 last year, and they made a surprise and spirited run to the NLCS. In an effort to build on last year’s success, the Mets signed Soto away from the crosstown rival New York Yankees with the largest contract in North American sports history: 15 years and $765 million with no deferrals. It’s $51 million per year. A few months later, the Mets brought Alonso back following a prolonged free agency staredown. For all intents and purposes, this is the 2024 Mets offense plus Soto, one of the very best hitters in the world.
The pitching depth will be tested early in the season. Sean Manaea (oblique) and Frankie Montas (lat) will miss the first few weeks of the regular season with injuries, and oblique and lat strains are tricky. They have a way of lingering longer than expected. The Mets talked about using a six-man rotation before those injuries, but POBO David Stearns walked back the idea a few weeks ago even though Senga (Japanese veteran used to pitching once a week) and Holmes (converted reliever) would benefit from extra rest. One of Blackburn, Canning, or Megill will open the season in the bullpen.
Stearns has earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to building a pitching staff. Similar to Baltimore Orioles GM Mike Elias, Stearns is a “don’t pay big for pitchers because they all get hurt” guy, and he made it work throughout his time with the Milwaukee Brewers and in his first year with the Mets. Manaea and Luis Severino worked out wonderfully last year, and Stearns and his staff rebuilt the bullpen on the fly during the season. That magic touch will be needed with Manaea and Montas hurt, Holmes moving into the rotation, Blackburn coming off a gnarly spine injury, and Canning coming off a down year.
Top prospect Brandon Sproat will arrive at some point this summer and there’s enough prospect depth to trade for an impact starter at the deadline, assuming one becomes available. Again, Stearns has earned the benefit of the doubt with pitching, and Soto and the offense should give the guys on the mound plenty of support and breathing room. Lindor was an MVP candidate last year. So was Soto. Alonso never misses a game and hits 30 homers a year like clockwork. It is a deep lineup with hitters who grind out at-bats, wear down pitchers, and can hit pitchers’ pitches into the seats.
The Mets have started on the wrong foot health-wise this spring — ascendant catcher Francisco Alvarez will miss two months or so after breaking his hamate, and Jeff McNeil has an oblique issue — though they have enough depth and a resourceful enough front office to overcome the Manaea and Montas injuries for at least a few weeks. Bottom line, you don’t give Soto that contract unless you are trying to win the World Series this year. Last year’s Mets were a fun, upstart team that unexpectedly reached the NLCS. This year’s version will enter the season with more expectations. That isn’t to say they can’t handle them. That’s just the reality. Soto was brought in to push the Mets past the NL’s other top teams, not continue 2024’s feel-good underdog story.
Projected starting lineup
- LF Jurickson Profar, SHB
- 3B Austin Riley, RHB
- 1B Matt Olson, LHB
- DH Marcell Ozuna, RHB
- CF Michael Harris II, LHB
- 2B Ozzie Albies, SHB
- C Drake Baldwin, LHB
- SS Orlando Arcia, RHB
- LF Jarred Kelenic, LHB and Bryan De La Cruz, RHB
Projected rotation
- LHP Chris Sale
- RHP Reynaldo López
- RHP Spencer Schwellenbach
- RHP Grant Holmes
- RHP Ian Anderson
Notable relievers
Biggest question: Can they stay afloat until their injured stars return?
The lineup and rotation you see above are only temporary, or so the Braves hope. 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. is working his way back from ACL surgery and expected back a few weeks into the season. Spencer Strider is wrapping up his UCL surgery rehab and is also due back a few weeks into the season. He dominated in his spring debut. Ditto catcher Sean Murphy, who had a few broken ribs when he was hit by a pitch earlier this month. Setup man Joe Jiménez is expected to miss much of 2025 after knee surgery, though the others should return early enough to meaningfully contribute to the team’s NL East title chase.
For all intents and purposes, the Braves hope to keep their head above water the first few weeks of the season, then be the best version of themselves once Acuña, Murphy, and Strider are healthy. They fortified the outfield with Profar, who was a deserving All-Star last year, and Acuña will likely push Kelenic to the bench. Baldwin is Atlanta’s top prospect and gosh, what an opportunity for him. Win a job in spring training, perform well early in the season, and make it hard for them to take you out of the lineup when Murphy returns. An injury has opened the door for many prospects over the years. Now is Baldwin’s chance.
The rotation, I can’t lie, I have some concerns. Sale was terrific last year and finally won a Cy Young. Give the Braves a truth serum and I think they’d tell you even they didn’t expect López’s transition back into the rotation to go as well as it did last season. Those two were so good in 2024, but can the Braves really expect them to combine for 313 ⅓ innings with a 2.21 ERA and 11.3 WAR again? I will take the under on that. Max Fried and Charlie Morton left as free agents and were not replaced. That’s a lot of quality innings out the door, particularly Fried.
Anderson has not pitched in the big leagues since 2022 and Holmes is a converted reliever. They’ll get the first opportunities to hold down the back of the rotation. Strider is working his way back, and the Braves have others like Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Hurston Waldrep waiting as rotation alternatives. That depth will be needed — 13 different pitchers started a game for Atlanta last season — particularly early in the season, before Strider returns. I’m curious to see how the rotation holds up after a stellar 2024.
According to the Baseball Prospectus Injury Ledger, no team lost more WAR to injury in 2024. It felt like a Braves lost a core player to injury every other week. They still managed to reach the postseason, albeit as an 89-win wild-card team, but still, they got there. They wouldn’t let the injuries sink their season. Some of those injuries will carry over into 2025, though not too deep into the season. Stay afloat early in the year, then make noise at full strength. That’s the plan. The rotation and overall health must cooperate.
Projected starting lineup
- SS CJ Abrams, LHB
- RF Dylan Crews, RHB
- LF James Wood, LHB
- 1B Nathaniel Lowe, LHB
- DH Josh Bell, SHB
- 2B Luis García Jr., LHB
- C Keibert Ruiz, SHB
- 3B José Tena, LHB and Paul DeJong, RHB
- CF Jacob Young, RHB
Projected rotation
- LHP MacKenzie Gore
- RHP Trevor Williams
- RHP Jake Irvin
- RHP Michael Soroka
- LHP Mitchell Parker
- LHP DJ Herz
Notable relievers
Biggest question: Can they build a foundation and get to .500?
“Build a foundation” isn’t really the right way to put it. The foundation is already in place: Abrams, Crews, Gore, and Wood. There’s more talent on the way too, particularly infielders Brady House and Seaver King, righty Travis Sykora, and whoever Washington selects with the No. 1 overall pick in July’s amateur draft. Clearly, this is a team on the upswing, even though they declined to make a Jayson Werth-esque splash in free agency to speed up the contention timeline.
After back-to-back 71-91 seasons, the talent is in place for the Nationals to really take a step forward this year, and at least get to .500, if not stay in the wild-card hunt deep into the season. Washington won the World Series in 2019 and no team has lost more games since (the Nationals have 420 losses since 2019, one more than the Colorado Rockies). I don’t want to say the rebuild is over, but it is time to make some progress. Gore is only — “only” — three years away from free agency, you know?
Wood’s left-field defense leaves something to be desired, though he’s such an exciting hitter thanks to his quality swing decisions and hard-hit ability. Abrams can be electrifying. He can also be maddeningly inconsistent, and last September the team punished him with a demotion to Triple-A because he stayed out late at a casino. On one hand, Abrams will play the entire 2025 season at age 24. He’s a young man. On the other hand, this will be his third full MLB season. It’s time to show consistency and maturation.
Patrick Corbin’s onerous contract finally expired and the Nationals have their best rotation depth in years. They’re not expected to run a six-man rotation this year, but they have the bodies to do it. Barring injury, either Parker or (more likely) Herz will begin the season in Triple-A. He won’t be there long. Sixth starters are always needed. Soroka could be a great value signing. Things clicked for him in the bullpen last year. Washington will give him another chance to start. If it doesn’t work, the bullpen is a solid fallback plan.
The Nationals play in a brutal division. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in a class of their own at the top of the league, then you could argue the next three best teams in baseball all play in the NL East. Washington’s young building block players will be challenged and, developmentally, that can be beneficial. Getting to .500 will be difficult simply because of the schedule. It’s time to do it though. The young talent is in place and the Nationals have spent too many years near the bottom of the standings lately.
Projected starting lineup
- SS Xavier Edwards, SHB
- 3B Connor Norby, RHB
- RF Griffin Conine, LHB (until Jesús Sánchez returns)
- 1B Jonah Bride, RHB
- DH Matt Mervis, LHB and Eric Wagaman, RHB
- 2B Otto Lopez, RHB
- LF Kyle Stowers, LHB and Derek Hill, RHB
- CF Dane Myers, RHB
- C Nick Fortes, RHB
Projected rotation
- RHP Sandy Alcantara
- RHP Cal Quantrill
- LHP Ryan Weathers
- RHP Edward Cabrera
- RHP Max Meyer
Notable relievers
Biggest question: How long until Alcantara gets traded?
The question is when, not if. The Marlins went to the postseason as the third wild-card team in 2023, albeit with 84 wins thanks to an unrepeatable 33-14 record in one-run games. GM Kim Ng was essentially forced out after the season and POBO Peter Bendix was hired away from the Tampa Bay Rays to run baseball operations. Since then, Bendix has embarked on a scorched earth rebuild. Luis Arraez, Jake Burger, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Bryan De La Cruz, Jesús Luzardo, AJ Puk, Tanner Scott, and others have all been traded away since Bendix took over. No reason to think Alcantara won’t be next.
The 29-year-old righty has looked terrific this spring after missing 2024 with Tommy John surgery. He’s on a very team-friendly contract — $17 million in 2025, $17 million in 2026, and a $21 million club option for 2027 — that makes him appealing to just about every other team. As long as he stays healthy, and he certainly looks healthy this spring, Alcantara figures to be the hottest trade commodity at this summer’s deadline. Top flight starters with multiple years of affordable control are always in demand. (The Mets and Orioles immediately jump to mind as contenders with the rotation need and prospect depth to swing such a trade.)
Bendix acted quickly to move Arraez last year. He was traded on May 4, which is very early in the season for a big-name player to be moved. On one hand, it would make sense to let the market play out for Alcantara, and create a bidding war. On the other hand, he is coming off Tommy John surgery. Pitchers get hurt, it’s what they do, and it would make sense to move Alcantara quickly just to avoid the possibility of another injury sabotaging his trade value prior to the deadline. My guess is Bendix hopes to move Alcantara quickly like he did Arraez. Ultimately, it will depend on the quality of offers he receives.
It’s a shame the biggest question for the Marlins going into 2025 is “when will they trade their best player?” but such is the state of the franchise. They’ll challenge the Chicago White Sox and Rockies for the worst record in baseball. The farm system is improving (Bendix has traded for 13 of their top 30 prospects, per MLB Pipeline), but the Marlins are two years away from being two years away. Trading Alcantara would be a bummer for the fan base. It’s also the smart baseball move.
