Agent’s Take: Why recent history shows 49ers will likely slow roll a new mega deal with Brock Purdy

The San Francisco 49ers’ biggest piece of offseason business is trying to get quarterback Brock Purdy signed to a contract extension. Purdy indicated at the end of the 2024 regular season in early January that he would like a new deal done sooner rather than later. He pointed to the start of the offseason workout program, which begins on April 22, as a target date. 

General manager John Lynch didn’t rule out a quick resolution when meeting with the media last week at the NFL’s annual meeting although he didn’t give an exact timetable. He expressed confidence that negotiations wouldn’t be protracted because “there’s motivation on both sides” to reach an agreement.

That would be a major departure from San Francisco’s recent history with key players who are in the final year of a rookie contract like Purdy is. Contract drama has become a way of life for the 49ers. Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan say the right things shortly after the season ends but negotiations with these players have a tendency to become acrimonious even when they shouldn’t. 

The easiest case should have been edge rusher Nick Bosa in 2023. Even Stevie Wonder could have seen that Bosa was going to become the league’s highest-paid non-quarterback by a good margin after being named 2022’s NFL Defensive Player of the Year when his agent did the same thing three years earlier for his less accomplished brother, Joey. 

Bosa held out until he signed a five-year, $170 million contract extension, averaging $34 million per year, right before the start of the 2023 regular season. The deal had then-non-quarterback records of $122.5 million in overall guarantees and $88 million was fully guaranteed at signing.

Once the Miami Dolphins gave Jaylen Waddle a three-year, $84.75 million extension, averaging $28.25 million per year, making him the NFL’s highest-paid No. 2 wide receiver last May, there was no chance Brandon Aiyuk, who has been Purdy’s favorite target, would sign for less than that. Aiyuk bears some responsibility for his training camp hold-in in being more eventful than Bosa’s holdout. He kept expressing his frustrations with negotiations on social media and requested a trade like wide receiver Deebo Samuel did in 2022 before signing an extension during the early part of training camp. Aiyuk was almost traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers prior to signing a four-year, $120 million extension, averaging $30 million per year, a little more than a week before San Francisco’s regular-season opener last Sept. 9.

The 49ers were also contending with perennial All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams’ holdout. His situation was resolved with a renegotiated contract a couple days after Aiyuk signed.

A more realistic ambitious timetable for signing Purdy might be by May 27 when San Francisco begins phase three of offseason workouts. The 10 days of organized team activities can start being held where 11-on-11 drills are permitted. The 49ers shouldn’t be surprised if Purdy is absent from offseason workouts as long as he doesn’t have a new deal.

There was a report during early March that the 49ers made a $45 million-per-year offer to Purdy, which has been disputed. Assuming an offer in this ballpark was initially made, the 49ers are going to have to substantially up the ante to get a deal done with Purdy at all, let alone in a timely fashion.

The first problem the 49ers are going to have is getting Purdy’s camp to understand why Purdy should be treated worse than an inexperienced Jimmy Garoppolo since Purdy has done a lot more than Garoppolo ever did when he signed his contract. Garoppolo briefly became the league’s highest-paid player in 2018 after just a handful of good starts, following his 2017 midseason trade from the New England Patriots several months earlier. 

The five-year, $137.5 million deal, averaging $27.5 million per year, Garoppolo signed in February 2018 a couple days after Super Bowl LII was 1.85% more than the five-year extension, averaging $27 million per year, Matthew Stafford received from the Detroit Lions at the beginning of the previous September. Garoppolo had an expiring contract while Purdy is in a contract year.

The 49ers would likely characterize the Garoppolo deal as getting ahead of the market although Garoppolo was a largely unproven commodity. Just over a month later, Kirk Cousins replaced Garoppolo as the NFL’s highest-paid player on the fully guaranteed three-year, $84 million contract, averaging $28 million per year, he signed with the Minnesota Vikings as an unrestricted free agent. By the time the 2018 regular season started, Garoppolo was fourth in the NFL salary rankings thanks to Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan signing respective four- and five-year extensions with the Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons.

Kyle Shanahan says ‘there’s a chance’ for Brandon Aiyuk to play Week 1 as 49ers WR recovers from knee surgery

Shanna McCarriston

Purdy is the best quarterback Shanahan has had during the eight seasons he has been the 49ers’ head coach. Since becoming San Francisco’s starting quarterback in 2022 during the latter part of his rookie season, Purdy has the NFL’s best passer rating at 106.2 as well as a league-leading 9.0 yards per pass attempt and 13.3 yards per completion (minimum of 500 pass attempts for these categories). Purdy was an NFL MVP finalist in 2023 after completing 69.4% of his passes for a 49ers franchise-record 4,280 yards with 31 touchdowns and 11 interceptions to post an NFL-leading 113.0 passer rating. 

The 49ers were defeated by the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship game when Purdy was a rookie. He was sidelined with an elbow injury during San Francisco’s first offensive series of the game. The 49ers suffered a 25-22 overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII during the 2023 season.

It was a different story for Purdy and the 49ers in 2024. The 49ers had a disappointing 6-11 record and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2020. Purdy had a career-low 65.9 completion percentage and career-low 96.1 passer rating. He also threw a career-high 12 interceptions in 15 games. 

There were mitigating factors. Injuries depleted the offense as 2023’s NFL Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey, who is the NFL’s best dual-threat running back when healthy, was limited to four games. Aiyuk was lost seven games into the season after tearing the ACL and MCL in his right knee. Williams only played 10 games because of an ankle injury.

There are currently 10 quarterbacks with deals averaging $50 million per year or more, ranging from Jalen Hurts’ $51 million per year with the Super Bowl LIX champion Eagles to Dak Prescott’s $60 million per year from the Dallas Cowboys. Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love are right behind Prescott on the quarterback salary totem pole with $55 million-per-year deals, respectively, from the Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars and Packers. Next are Miami Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa ($53.1 million), Detroit Lions’ Jared Goff ($53 million), Los Angeles Chargers’ Justin Herbert ($52.5 million) and Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson ($52 million).

Herbert has yet to win in two trips to the postseason in four NFL seasons. He is coming off a disastrous four-interception wild-card playoff game loss to the Houston Texans last season. Tagovailoa missed the playoffs in 2024, like Purdy, and is winless in his lone postseason appearance. More concerning is Tagovailoa’s lack of durability because of multiple concussions. Lawrence is living off his pedigree as 2021’s first overall pick. He has regressed since seemingly turning the corner during a sophomore campaign where the Jaguars won a wild-card playoff game over Herbert’s Chargers, which was Jacksonville’s last trip to the postseason. Love got his contract at the start of training camp last July as a one-year starter on the strength of an impressive second half of the 2023 regular season and playoffs. The Packers lost to the 49ers in the divisional playoffs.

One thing these quarterbacks have in common is each was a first-round pick. All but Love were taken at or near the top of the NFL Draft. Love was selected 26th overall in 2020. Purdy is at the opposite end of the spectrum. He was Mr. Irrelevant, selected last in the 2022 NFL Draft. My experience as an agent was a first-round pick was more likely to get the benefit of doubt in an extension of a rookie contract than a late-round pick or undrafted free agent. 

Given this quarterback salary landscape, the 49ers are operating in bad faith if the offer on the table to Purdy isn’t at a minimum $50 million per year. At the very least, the 49ers should be willing to put Purdy at the same place in the quarterback salary hierarchy Colin Kaepernick was when he signed his six-year extension in June 2014. At $19 million per year, Kaepernick became the NFL’s sixth-highest-paid upon signing. Doing the same for Purdy would be somewhere between Tagovailoa’s $53.1 million per year and the logjam at $55 million per year. 

The extensions for Tagovailoa, Lawrence, Love and Herbert averaged 20.79% to 23.35% of the salary cap when signed. Tagovailoa’s deal, adjusted for the 9.32% increase in the salary cap from 2023 when he received his extension, is just over $58 million per year.

The latest data point in the quarterback market in Allen’s six-year, $330 million deal. The Bills renegotiated Allen’s contract although he had four years worth $154,554,595 remaining on the six-year, $258 million extension, averaging $43 million per year (worth a maximum of $288 million through incentives), he signed in 2021. It’s extremely unusual for a team to effectively rip up a contract with four years left like the Bills did. The maximum value of the deal is worth $333 million because of a $500,000 annual incentive for winning the Super Bowl. The contract has an NFL-record $250 million of guarantees. The $147 million fully guaranteed at signing is second-most ever in an NFL contract. 

Allen was clearly focused on cash flow as opposed to maximizing the average yearly salary. His $220 million from 2025 through 2028 is the best four-year cash flow ever in an NFL contract. It surpassed the previous high of $219 million (2024 through 2027) in Prescott’s four-year, $240 million extension signed last September that made him the NFL’s first $60 million-per-year player. Being the reigning NFL MVP should have given Allen enough ammunition to not only become the cash-flow king but also the league’s highest-paid player instead of being in a tie for second.

The 49ers will likely view Allen’s $55 million as Purdy’s salary ceiling. It isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison because Allen’s was a renegotiation rather than contract extension. Purdy’s situation is much more analogous to Goff, Hurts, Love, Prescott and Tagovailoa, who were in contract years when signing new deals. 

There is a school of thought that the 49ers should only do a deal in 2025 on their terms because of the ability to keep Purdy off the open market for up to three years with franchise tags. That approach could be a double-edged sword. 

Trying to win the deal backfired for the Washington Commanders with Cousins. Lowballing Cousins on the first franchise tag in 2016 led to Cousins refusing to engage in serious negotiations on the second franchise tag in 2017 after preliminary contract discussions weren’t productive because free agency was going to be imminent since a third franchise tag was going to be too cost prohibitive.

The 2026 non-exclusive franchise tag for quarterbacks projects to 14.576% of the 2026 salary cap. It’s 14.413% in 2025. If the 2026 salary cap is set at $302.5 million, an 8.35% increase over 2025’s $279.2 million salary cap, the quarterback figure should be $44.092 million. A second franchise tag in 2027 at a NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement-mandated 20% increase over Purdy’s projected 2026 number would be $52,910,400. A third and final franchise tag with a 44% increase over the 2027 cost projects to $76,190,976. Purdy would be positioned to test the open market in 2028 after making just over $97 million on two franchise tags (approximately $48.5 million per year).

The hardest part for Purdy under this scenario would be playing out his rookie contract for his $5.346 million 2025 salary on a $5,365,253 cap number. The $5.346 million is well below Purdy’s market value but is still a substantial raise for him. The $2,637,012 Purdy has made during the first three years of his rookie contract (2022 through 2024) is a little less than half this amount. 

At some point while going year to year, the 49ers would run the risk of being in the Bay Area long term taking a backseat for Purdy where he embraces the franchise tag game and potential freedom. If Purdy is given a franchise tag in 2026 because he played out his rookie contract, he should wait for new developments in the quarterback market. Jackson is going to reset the quarterback market on his next contract, according to Ravens head coach Jim Harbaugh. A Jackson extension this year can’t be dismissed. The more likely timing is next offseason when his salary cap number balloons to $74.5 million in 2026.

The Texans are proactive in signing core first-round picks. Derek Stingley Jr. recently took the cornerback market to new heights by becoming the NFL’s first $30 million-per-year defensive back after his third NFL season and 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud will be eligible for a contract extension once the 2025 regular season ends next Jan. 4. Any extension Stroud signs in 2026 will likely eclipse Prescott’s $60 million per year. 

Lynch said in January right after the 49ers’ season ended that he wanted Purdy to be the quarterback as long he was with the organization. Shanahan said at the same time that the 49ers are capable of winning a Super Bowl with Purdy. If Shanahan’s statement was sincere and a belief throughout the organization, then a deal shouldn’t be that hard to do like 49ers owner Jed York said last week at the league’s annual meeting.

The 49ers should probably take Super Bowl XXXVII-winning head coach Jon Gruden’s words about the quarterback situation to heart during the negotiations but probably won’t. “He’s covered their ass man. They gave up three first-round draft choices to get a guy (Trey Lance) they got rid of. … And this guy’s (Purdy) the last pick of the draft. He’s taken you to the Super Bowl. He’s taken you to the brink,” Gruden said in New Orleans ahead of Super Bowl LIX. “He deserves to get paid and I’ll just leave it at that.”

Lynch may very well have gone back to broadcasting NFL games like he was before joining the 49ers or might be the football general manager at Stanford, his alma mater, instead of Andrew Luck without Purdy emerging. A disaster at quarterback could have cost Shanahan his job where he’s an offensive coordinator trying to put himself in a position to get his second NFL head coaching job.

The 49ers probably don’t have to worry about Purdy holding out, like Bosa did in 2023, if he doesn’t have a new deal by the start of training camp during the latter part of July. Purdy wouldn’t get a year of service for free agency, which is an accrued season in the CBA, if he didn’t report to training camp on time regardless of how many 2025 regular-season games he subsequently played. 

With an unsuccessful holdout where Purdy plays out his rookie contract, he would be a restricted free agent in 2026. From a practical standpoint, the 49ers would likely designate Purdy as a franchise player anyway. Putting a first-round restricted free agent tender on Purdy would likely invite an offer sheet from another team. The 49ers would get a first-round pick as compensation if the offer sheet wasn’t matched. The compensation for declining to match an offer sheet with a non-exclusive franchise tag is two first-round picks. Increased draft choices would also be much more of a deterrent to an offer sheet.